Arab Democracy

The same phenomenon that first struck-down the dictatorship of Tunisia is poised to engulf the Arab world in the same way that 1798 gave rise to a shake-up of the status quo for European monarchs. It seems fitting that, in a place where the French once brought their empire while leaving their ideals at home, the roots of a sprouted revolution have taken hold. But here we are as Arab democracy is finally calling after years of wishful flirtation that she might. She looks lovely wrapped in the jasmine of Tunisia, holding you against her bosom and whispering throatily into your ear that she will make you feel like no monarch or dictator ever could: I’m in love already.  

Several other nations trying to make a push for democratic change in recent weeks have also resorted to protests. Four people in Morocco resorted to self-immolation (setting themselves on fire), while tens of thousands have rallied in Yemen, Egypt, Algeria, Jordan and Lebanon. The general sentiment of all protests has been one of frustration with regards to poverty and unemployment, along with a call for governments representative of the people and sympathetic to their interests. Fair due to those points, especially considering that the demographics of the mentioned countries tilt towards youth quite heavily (read: change). Make no mistake, democracy born from these events would be different from that of Iraq: the former would be organic, while the latter was synthetic and a make-shift imposed product.     

It is a mixed blessing that these demonstrations are without a face. No individual or organization is behind them. At best, the Muslim Brotherhood – once derided as a terrorist organization for its assassination of Egyptian President in 1948 as well as its attempted coup and other assassination plots   - has been relatively rooted in their approach to moderate governance. Think of them as Hamas and Hezbollah without the violence; all provide crucial social services like education, health care and sanitation. The Brotherhood has done well to field moderate candidates in recent elections, though they remain technically illegal and struggle to have their names placed on ballots. Yet the Muslim Brotherhood is not yet known to be orchestrating the events in Egypt, where the ruling National Democratic Party recently won 95% of the vote in first-round voting. Though they are riding the chariot that is the protests, they’ve yet to take the reins.

So what is the end goal of these movements? Hard to say really. I’m sure their ideal is to further democracy, the likes of which they can readily see on the internet as well as television thanks in large part to al-Jazeera (the Arab equivalent of CNN). But maybe they would settle for small concessions now with the hope of moving the ball down the field in due time (think Magna Carta). The events in Tunisia will have been a welcome inspiration in homes across the region, but as is the case with any opportunity, there are always obstacles to negotiate. And while there is no clear objective other than chants for change and democracy, what remains interesting is how little ideology has penetrated these events.     

Now the danger of a faceless protest is that it could allow for a growing Islamist movement to fill the void. This surely would have consequences, the more pressing of which is that it would ruin any sympathy amongst the Arab elite and moderates, not to mention Western governments who are already fearful of rising fundamentalism. One of the main reasons US administrations have for decades supported Mubarak in Egypt is due to his tough love towards extremists and support for the US in terror policing.

Sure Tunisia was able to avoid this issue, with their army saying they would support the revolution and ensure its longevity; but there isn't a deeply rooted fundamentalist movement present, and really who wants to invite the possibility of another military coup? As you move further across the region you see this is more of an issue. The most pointed case is Yemen, a failed state with massive poverty, unemployment and a volatile government who needs constant hand-holding and military aid from the US; not to mention the growing presence of insurgent elements who are flocking to Yemen like kids to Disney Land (Somalia being Disney World).   

As domestic visionaries come there is one that could have some real impact on the events in Egypt and the broader Middle East. Mohamed ElBaradei, the 2005 Nobel Peace Prize winner, former head of the IAEA and native of Cairo, has called for progress amidst the chaos. He has recently said “I continue to call on the regime to understand that they better listen and listen quickly, not use violence and understand that change has to come. There's no other option." It is a good starting point from a man with international credibility and sympathy for democratic values. He would be my bet for true leadership in the transition to, and possible governance of a democracy.  

To help this along the international community should act as midwives, providing strong international pressure and support for strong domestic visionaries. When I say that, I don’t mean go the way of the French and British and make a hash of the entire Middle East like they did at Versailles. Nor do I think the UN should impose a mandate on the region, much like they did by creating Israel and nurturing the chaos that exists there today (though supporting a mandate to guarantee land and statehood to Palestine I would support). What should be done is a delegation of respected world leaders and activists – with no agenda other than peace and democracy – should be sitting on the sidelines. When necessary, they should encourage, call for restraint, promote values and above all do so with vision rather than political motives.  

Sadly there seems to be a lack of Arabists (those who are sympathetic to the Arab peoples) in the West, as well as the East I would think, with a major profile. If the international community alienates democratic movements any longer, blowback that goes beyond that which occurred following the previous 90 years of policy in the Middle East will threaten many. Ideally, we resurrect T.E. Lawrence and put him in the mix as a true leader and statesman in the Middle East. He championed the Arab cause, disagreed with many imperialist views of his own government, and fought alongside those whom he wanted to help. Lawrence commanded respect from Europe and the Middle East and, more importantly, had earned the trust of the Arab people through his sacrifice and his vision. If ElBaradei can manage to do the same, regardless of what the actions and sentiments are of Western or Eastern governments, the Arab world has a real chance this time at attaining something they have longed for.  

Hopefully those with a vested interest in change have the drive and wisdom to match the heights this movement must strive for in order to encourage meaningful progress. It’s only a matter of time before change does sweep the Middle East in the same way it did in Europe following the French Revolution. The only questions remaining is which way will the scimitar fall? And is a true Arab democracy finally on its way? Let's just hope we don't find ourselves staring down a neo-Napoleon along the Suez.